INTERVIEWS & NEWS MEDIA

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Article from: La Razon. Spain. 24.02.2024

Two years of full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war.

Two years ago I was woken up at 5 a.m. by a telephone call of my friend with a question:” Maksym,  has war begun?!.

At 8.00 a.m. I was already giving an interview on Ukrainian TV, trying to explain to people what was going on.

At 10.00 a.m. I was giving an online lecture to my students at University all around Ukraine, including soon-to-be-occupied territories . This lecture was special: I was giving them advice how to survive and what they should do in this new and awful reality , which just a few days ago for the majority of Ukrainians and people all around the world seemed to be impossible – an apocalyptic Hollywood movie scenario. 

Today it looks like an eternity has passed since then,  but it is only two years. So many tragic and  unreal to imagine events took place: evacuation of my 9 year old son from Kyiv on the 24th of February 2022 , then a truly special operation for evacuation of my mother and sister from besieged Mariupol under constant shelling and bombardments after two weeks  of dreadful silence from them, when I didn’t know whether they were still alive or not…

When a totally empty Kyiv with regular  sounds of explosions of Russian shells and rockets still seemed to be a pretty safe place to be after watching horrible videos and photos of a ruined  Drama theatre in Mariupol after Russian bombs fell on it, having buried hundreds of civilians,  mostly women, elderly people and children who were trying to save their lives in it. Naively believing,  that huge 3  meters long letters C -H-I-L-D-R-E-N near it would reassure  Russian pilots  and their commanders from  killing them. They didn’t…

Only after several months and thousands of deaths of absolutely innocent women,  children,  elderly people and terrifying  stories of millions of Ukrainians who were rescuing their lives in European countries,  the governments and leaders of US and EU countries finally made their decisions to start supplying Ukraine with so much needed for yesterday shells and weapons. Not only saving by doing so hundreds of thousands of lives of Ukrainians, from hunger and  drinking water from the puddles as it was in Mariupol,  tortuers and rapes in basements, as it took place in Bucha and many other towns and villages all around Ukraine,  which Russian troops managed to occupy during first days and weeks of full-scale invasion.

I am sure , we have seen just a small piece and preview of thousands of war criminals committed by Russian soldiers after they lost the battle for Kyiv and  had to run away in a hurry from Kyiv,  Chernigiv,  Zhytomyr and Sumy regions on the North of Ukraine .

Only next to  totally ruined Mariupol were identifed with the help of satellite photos  more than 10 000 unnamed graves. Only numbers on the wooden sticks above them. Without names.

Figures of killed civilians just in one town Mariupol varies from 10.000 up to 90.000. Nobody can say for sure. For a year and a half which passed since occupation, Russians killers did their best to hide the evidence of theleir crimes against humanity in Mariupol. Just as everywhere. 

The most cynical decision was to rebuild Drama theatre on the same place with the same building. Just on the graves of innocent people killed by their bombs. The smell from the decomposed bodies could not be conquered even by concrete. 

After our Western partners supplied us with weapons Ukrainian Armed Forces showed unbelievable effectiveness of their usage in Autumn 2022 , when they deoccupied Kharkiv region and forced Russian troops to leave Kherson – the only regional center they managed to occupy since February 24th 2022. 

Just a dozen Himars systems allowed to ruin logistics and deoccupy 300.000 inhabited town, which Russian commanders promised to make a “Second Stalingrad” .

Not only destroying military enterprises producing much needed weapons and shells for defence,  but also increasing the number of killed civilians during their attacks  from tens to hundreds and then to thousands,  just as it was two years ago.

This winter my son came to visit me in Kyiv for New Year holidays and birthday. Just two days after he came, on the 29 th of December there was a huge missile attack on Kyiv and I was woken up by explosion of Russian missiles which landed just a few kilometres away from my house. 

Luckily,  my son was sleeping tight and didn’t wake up. Just few days after, on the 2nd of January,  the attack was repeated,  but that there were few of them during several hours. Tens of missiles, including ballistic,  fell on Kyiv. Most of them were hit by air-defence systems. But, believe me, the noise when one rocket hits another in the sky is twice louder. And when Patriot system rockets hits the supersonic aeroballistic missile “Kinzhal” the houses and walls are trembling even ten miles away. During the last two years we all learned to identify on sounds the work of air-defence systems,  whether the shells or rockets fly on us, or to opposite side… The calibres of shell used to the type of air-defence systems protecting the sky of Kyiv from Russian missiles of Iranian drones. 

Whether to run to  bomb shelter, or to stay in the bathroom/corridor ,  using the rule of two walls.

But it is one thing if you live alone, as I do and responsible just for your own life.  But it is absolutely different feelings experienced by me personally last month,  when you are woken up by huge explosions not far away and  next to you is peacefully sleeping your 10 year-old son….  

He wants badly to visit me this spring again. No matter of the dangerousness and the risks to his life he cannot realise yet .

During last year with the help of US Patriot systems,  European NASAMS and other types of air-defence systems and the perfect skills of Ukrainian soldiers to shut down Russian mussles Kyiv has  became the safest city in Ukraine. 

But realising,  that because of the bearocratical delays in EU and election campaign in US which paralysed the work of Congress  by that time we may be left without rockets for air-defence systems,  I will definitely not put at risk the life of my son to visit me in Kyiv.

But most of all I am disappointed to see how the strategy  of Putin is being realised.

How his expectations that Americans and Europeans will be tired of “long war” , losing it interest to it and willing to come back to “normal life”  and Western businessmen to came back to “business as usual” with Russia. To see how they sell their products to Russia’s neighbours like Armenia, Kazakhstan,  Kyrgyzstan,  Georgia,  Turkey and other countries,  which then re-export it to Russia earning milling and billions on it. Nowing perfectly,  that Russia will use it then to produce missiles and rockets to kill more Ukrainian soldiers , women and children with them. Nor matter intentionally or accidentally,  as they always trying to justify themselves.  We all saw and remember what they did in Bucha , Mariupol  , Bahkmut,  Severedonetsk and many other towns and villages, swiped off from the Earth.

We all know, that the same will be with other towns and cities very soon  if our Western partners will keep concentrating on their own problems and keep shortening the military assistance to Ukraine as they are doing for last months .

But most of all it is  disappointing for me to see that the majority of Western politicians and citing,  especially EU,  still have not realized that Putin will not stop in Ukraine if he defeats and occupies it. Then he will continue violating all his promises with the West. Just as Hitler did in 1939 after the “Munich collusion ” with France and Grest Britain about

Czechoslovakia. 

The history is repeating. Just as the European are repeating its mistaks trying not to “look up” as in famous Hollywood movie .

But the price of these mistakes will be also too high finally for the whole World just as in 1940-ies,  but not just for Ukraine, who oficially suffered most of all during Second World War and now relive this tragedy once again.

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«Ukraine and Asia: Strategic Dimensions of Partnership»

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Maksym Yali: On the Western front without changes

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o21RjYviS4M

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English translation of the article above: Maksym Yali. January 2023. Article in Larazon: Basic scenarios of Russian-Ukrainian war in 2023: why in coming months there will be decisive battles for peace in Europe (Part 1).

 In this article I will present basic scenarios of the main events in Russian-Ukrainian war in 2023 which can be the crucial not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe and the Western World. Because next year there will be presidential elections in Russia,  in Ukraine, and in US. Therefore in 2023, especially in the first part of it, the main events will take place. As it takes time to start negotiations, to sign the truce or peace treaty, then all the parties before the elections will have to start implementing them and to show some positive results to their voters. 

 Both sides are preparing for the decisive battles in coming months, the results of which may force both sides to come to compromises and to start negotiations about ceasefire admitting, that at the moment neither side is ready to start them, as conditions of each side are considered absolutely unacceptable for the opposite side.

The minimum goal for Putin , which can be sold to his voters as victory – to occupy completely Donbass , and to hold the land corridor to Crimea, occupied  since  2014. The minimum condition for Ukraine to start any negotiations with Russia is to restore the status-quo 23.02.2022. As the Head of the UAF Valeriy Zaluzhny mentioned in his interview to the Economist: “I need 300 tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles 500 Howitzers“. During last month the leaders and governments of France, Germany, the US and Italy declared officially the decision to supply Ukraine with so much needed for offensive operations armored vehicles and other military equipment. But mostly needed for offensive operations and the biggest problem in supply are heavy tanks. 

So far European governments were afraid to give Ukraine tanks because of threats of escalation from the Kremlin. First of all it concerns Germany as the producer of Leopard  tanks – the most numerous sample in European armies – more than 2000 in total. Even if all EU states give 10% of their resources, it will be 2/3 of the needed amount. 

But on the 16th of January Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, confirmed plans to send Challenger 2  tanks and a package of other sophisticated military equipment to Ukraine, as part of wider efforts to persuade other Western nations to offer similar support. Definitely 14 tanks are not enough for any offensive operations.  But the main goal of the British government is rather symbolic –to break this wall and to speed up the supply of tanks to Ukraine by other countries. And it is very important, that this step was done.  On the 20th of January there is going to be the next Rammstein format summit, where the decision to supply tanks to Ukraine may be officially declared by other Ukrainian allies. But even if it happens then at least two moths will be needed for negotiations, bureaucratic procedures inside EU states, logistics and training for Ukrainian soldiers to use them. 

So the chances that Russia will start its offensive operations the first are much higher. So the next question is: Where will it be?. There are several possible directions on the south to attack Kherson. On the north to attack Kyiv again and the Western regions of Ukraine to cut off supply chains of Western military assistance from the territory of Poland.  And on  the east to attack Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration. But before that they need to win the battle for Bakhmut which is going on since autumn. 

As for the south, as Ukrainian intelligence says, after RAF left Kherson  already after it was “joined” to Russia, they are not preparing for new offensive, but fortifying the defense line on the left bank of Dnipro river for two months already. To occupy Zaporizzia without new waves of mobilization is almost impossible. It is too big and well-fortified.

Instead, Russians are preparing offensive operations in the south to strike in  Zaporizhzhia region towards the north-east to the borders of Donetsk region to divert UAF from Donbass and to occupy the rest of Zaporizhzhia region. From my point of view it is most likely direction for Russian offensive at the moment. For last several months they are sending there more troops and military equipment from Russia. Another possible direction is the north of Ukraine. For several months RAF concentrate and train in Belarus their troops and send military equipment. But at the moment the chances for this scenario are not so high for several reasons.

 Firstly, the number of Russian troops in Belarus now due to official statements is about 11  thousand, which is not enough even if Belarus army joins the offensive. Secondly, UAF are much better prepared today for that scenario and the ways to Kyiv and Western regions of Ukraine on the border with Belarus are much better fortified. So the main goal of Russian grouping in Belarus  at the moment remains the same – not to allow to send several brigades of UAF from there to the battlefields in Donbass or to the south.

Russian generals also clearly understand the intention of UAF to start its offensive operations and the time limits mentioned above. Therefore they may start the offensive operations even earlier, before the troops are trained and well-equipped. Putin also demands from his generals to show the successes by the 1st Anniversary of full-scale war, which will be very soon. In that case, these offensive operations, especially if Russians again decide to start simultaneously several of them both in the south and on the north may fail because of lack of resources and the beginning of spring thaw in March.

Knowing  that in April under conditions I mentioned above Ukraine will be ready to start its offensive operations, Kremlin will highly likely go to its plan B they are preparing already for several last months.

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